Although the departure and exile of Edmundo González Urrutia to Spain last Saturday, September 7th, caused a feeling of demoralization for a large part of the citizens who voted for him in the presidential elections of July 28th, for the Doctor in Public Communication and Professor of Political Communication at the University of Navarra, Carmen Beatriz Fernández, this scenario can play in favor of a political transition in Venezuela.
By lapatilla.com
Fernández explained that during the next few months the strategy used by the opposition in the electoral campaign could be repeated, where González Urrutia carried out the “air campaign”, giving interviews mainly to international media, while the leader María Corina Machado, who is politically disqualified, carried out the “ground campaign” making direct contact with citizens.
“That worked very well within the campaign and I think that the same scheme can start to work very well now, that same 2×1 scheme, a tandem on a two-seat bicycle where both pedal in the same direction,” considered the Professor.
“Edmundo does much more in Madrid, in Europe, than being sheltered in a Caracas embassy or, much worse, imprisoned in Venezuela,” added Fernández about the political asylum granted to González Urrutia.
When asked about the motion approved last Wednesday, September 11th, by the Spanish Congress of Deputies, urging the Government of that country to recognize Edmundo González Urrutia as the winner of the elections in Venezuela, Fernández said that the “non-law proposal” (Non binding declaration) has a very important symbolic value.
The initiative was presented by the Popular Party and received a “no” from the official Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE).
“The argument of Pedro Sánchez and the PSOE is that it makes no sense to recognize Edmundo as president-elect as long as the problem of the political transition has not been resolved, that is their argument. That argument also says that they will recognize Edmundo when Europe is ready to recognize him. So, I do not see the position of the PSOE or Sánchez as a position of animosity against Edmundo, nor contrary to the interests of rescuing Venezuelan democracy. I rather see it as favorable and I see them working in a positive direction,” the academic pointed out.
One day after the decision of the Spanish Congress of Deputies, Pedro Sánchez held a meeting with González Urrutia at the Moncloa Palace. “I warmly welcome Edmundo González to our country, whom we welcome by showing the humanitarian commitment and solidarity of Spain with Venezuelans. Spain continues to work in favor of democracy, dialogue and the fundamental rights of the brotherly people of Venezuela,” Sánchez wrote on his account on X.
Is a transition possible?
The professor pointed out that although it does not currently seem likely that Nicolás Maduro and officials of the ruling party are willing to negotiate a transition, she does not rule out that in the four months prior to January 10th, this panorama will change.
“I think there is a possibility, Maduro is apparently very reluctant to accept the results and release the minutes (official records), but Maduro could change his mind, he could resign and he could give politics a chance as a space for understanding and start a transition. That would be the most auspicious result. What has to happen for that to happen? Two things: that Maduro understands that remaining in power is the worst thing that can happen to him in the long run and that space must be given so that this transition can be supervised by actors from the nomenclature. A bit like the Chilean model, when Pinochet loses the referendum he does not want to hand over power. What forced him to hand over power? Well, the military high command did not want to accompany him in his ambition,” Fernández commented.
She added that if this scenario does not develop and by January 10th, 2025 Maduro takes office as president of Venezuela, he would be a “very weak de facto leader,” because, he stressed, any type of government needs a “base of popular support” which, according to Fernández, Maduro does not have.
“The entire international community knows what happened (on July 28th), much more importantly, all of Venezuela knows what happened (…) It is a truth that is absolutely auditable and many people witnessed that truth, one in 10 people in Venezuela. It is very difficult to govern against this, with this climate of opposition. ‘Vox populi, Vox Dei, the voice of the people is the voice of God’, that is why the opposition refers so much to article 5 of the Constitution, which is popular sovereignty. You cannot govern against popular sovereignty, because doing so is enormously costly. The only way you could do it is with enormous repression,” argued the doctor in public communication.
Fernández stated that the triumph of Edmundo González, according to the minutes published by the opposition, meant for Maduro and his nomenclature a feeling of “danger, vulnerability and fear” that they have expressed by “terrorizing” the population.
“In that state, Venezuelan society is afraid, but fear is also installed in the government. It is a complicated labyrinth in any of its scenarios, but probably the least complicated is that of supervising a transition process, taking the reins of a transition process that begins a re-democratization,” considered the professor.